Sunday, July 1, 2012

Obamacare: Now What?

So the SCOTUS weighed in and declared "Obamacare" a tax and, therefore, constitutional. Rumblings from Republicans tell me the end of the world is near (thus the Mayan calendar must be correct) because this extraordinary tax increase will stifle the economy forever (yes, I'm exaggerating). Democrats see this decision as a verification of Obama's first term as its long-term effects include guaranteed universal health care at an affordable price, thus leading to a healthier,longer-living America with lower healthcare costs.

In all likelihood, this piece of legislature will be somewhat stripped, due to what economists refer to as the "law of unintended consequences". Healthy people will opt-out of insurance, paying the fine instead because it's cheaper. Only higher-risk people will be left to pay, thus driving up costs for them, and insurance profits will decline.  Pharmaceutical companies are guaranteed winners--many people need drugs to live a normal daily life, for one reason or another. (The author included.)  Insurance companies will experience 'hills and valleys' in profits as people come and go--nothing should be assumed.Hospitals should never worry, as people will live longer through drugs and better nutrition, and the insured will still need hospitals.

Long-term, look for the individual mandate and the taxes associated to be repealed or unenforced. Some other features (including allowing kids to stay on parents coverage until they're 26) will stay--people who vote are often parents who'll benefit from this. We'll see on the rest; stay tuned.

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