ObamaCare, the Federal Finances, and the Upcoming Labor Shortage

As I write this, President Obama, Congress, and the Senate are negotiating a budget deal that would keep the federal government paying its bills after October 1, 2013. Politics aside, it's odd that the politicians would continue to get paid on time while those serving in the military as still required to report for duty and perform their normal duties but don't get paid--they get an IOU. Try buying groceries or gas with that. But I digress...

Much has been mentioned of Obamacare, a/k/a the Affordable Care Act. Let's clear up one point of confusion: it's the same thing. Public approval of it tends to be different depending on what it's called (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/26/president-obama-approval_n_3998516.html). Even the source of the polls tends to make a distinct difference (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html). I'll end this thought by saying this: it's hard to know how it'll really effect all Americans until it becomes fully implemented, and while mandatory insurance has proven unpopular in several polls, many other provisions (allowing college students to stay on parents' insurance longer, not being allowed to discriminate based on age or preexisting conditions, etc.) tend to be popular across party lines.

Many have said that costs will go up, especially when commenting on Republican blogs (see "Positively Republican" on Facebook). This is true, but health care has increased in cost every year I've been alive. I suggest that more be done to investigate the cause of rising prices both in past years and 2014 without looking at 2014 increases by themselves.

Finally, in an earlier blog, I commented about the increase of part-time workers. Today I looked into the Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm). It shows that, seasonally adjusted, part-time workers are increasing while full-time employees are relatively stagnant. Some will say this is because Obamacare (a/k/a Affordable Care Act) forces employers to pay health insurance to those with over 50 employees who work over 32 hours a week. Note those exceptions: both over 50 employees and working over 32 hours a week; thus, many small employers are exempt because they don't have 50 employees. Those who do can choose to pay the penalty inherent with not offering health insurance, but there's a risk.

The risk is that, with the increase of part-time employees without a simultaneous increase in the labor force, there will be a supply constraint. Employers will need more part-time employees if they don't hire full-time employees, and they'll need either full-time employees to add a part-time job, the existing full-time employees to work more, or lure part-time employees from other jobs. All options are inflationary because of the limited number of part-time employees in the labor pool.

This will truly be a spectacle of economic forces as supply and demand of the labor force take effect.